Billboard's in-depth analysis of music sales and Long Tail (2004-2009)

In The Long Tale (November 14, 2009), Billboard’s Glenn Peoples brings up a lot of data as he looks for Long Tail evidences in music sales. There is a lot of highlights, including the sales profile of Phil Collins'albums.

• So far, at least according to Nielsen SoundScan data on U.S. music sales from January 2004 through October 2009, that revolution hasn’t arrived—although the demand for albums has changed.
• Sales of albums, especially digital ones, became significantly less concentrated around hit releases since 2004. But sales of digital tracks—which this year account for 56% of digital sales by track volume—have grown more concentrated in hits during the same time period.
• Essentially, hit songs are becoming more important while hit albums are becoming less so.
• From 2004 to 2008, the number of new albums released per year has more than doubled.
• From 2004 through October 2009, the most popular tracks have steadily and consistently grabbed market share—and tens of millions in unit sales—from less popular songs. The growth is slight at the top of the chart and more noticeable further down. The top 10 increased to 3.1% from 2.1%. The top 40 increased to 8.3% from 5.9%.
• The top 200 tracks—that’s just 0.002% of the nearly 9 million currently listed at Amazon—have a market share of 18.7%. In 2004, their share was 14.5%.
• Since iTunes launched variable pricing in early April 2009, the top 200 tracks have retained their market share even as the number of tracks purchased each week has fallen by about 6%.  From April to July, the top 200 averaged a 24% share of each week’s total track sales
• Album sales don’t look that different from five years ago in terms of the demand curve. The most significant change has been the overall decline in album sales: 32% from 2004 to 2008.
• From 2004 to 2008, sales of the 5,000 albums that make up the head of the demand curve dropped 40.5% while sales of the million-plus albums that make up the tail declined 27.4% And not only did sales of popular albums decline more than those of others, the most popular ones declined the most. Unit sales of the top 1,000 albums of 2008 dropped 41.7% from their 2004 levels. The second thousand most popular albums dropped 36%, the third thousand fell 33.2%, the fourth 31.2% and the fifth 30.9%.
• Five years ago, the top 5,000 albums represented 74.4% of total sales; in 2008 they accounted for 70.2%. Some of this comes from the sheer number of albums that now make up the end of the tail.
• Demand for digital albums is moving further down the tail than that for albums overall. In 2008, the top 5,000 albums accounted for 64.7% of digital album sales, as opposed to 70.2% of album sales overall. And the market share of the top 5,000 digital albums is shrinking as niche products take away sales from more popular titles. But the rate of change is slowing.
• In 2006 and 2007, the most popular 100 albums lost the most market share in absolute terms. The three percentage points of market share they lost represented about 1 million units. In 2008, albums from No. 101 to No. 200 lost the most share in absolute terms. But in relative terms, the albums in the middle of the head fared the worst in terms of losing share. From 2004 to 2008, albums from No. 301 to No. 400 lost the greatest percent of their market share—34%. From 2005 to 2008, Nos. 401-500 suffered the most—22%. From 2006 to 2008, albums as far down as No. 4,000 lost a greater percent of their market share (7%) then the top 100 ranks (5%).
• Within the tail of digital albums, the truly obscure albums seem to be pulling sales away from those that are merely unpopular. In 2008, albums as unpopular as those around No. 8,000 gave up market share to titles that were even less popular.
• One such album—former Afghan Whigs frontman Greg Dulli’s ‘Live at the Triple Door’—sold 1,400 digital copies in 2008 and ranked at No. 6,736. As ‘The Long Tail’ would have predicted, an album with that sales rank benefitted from the effects of widespread digital distribution. But during the past three years the gain for an album at No. 6,736 was nil: around 75 additional copies.
• In terms of overall album sales—not just those of digital albums—the greatest changes may be taking place in what might be called the middle class: albums ranked from No. 200 to No. 2,000 in terms of sales. Sales of these albums dropped as much as 34% from 2006 through 2008, compared with the 27% decline in overall sales.
• Most likely because so many music stores closed, catalog chestnuts like the Phil Collins collection ‘Hits’ have stayed close to their overall sales rank while selling far fewer units. In 2006, ‘Hits’ sold 116,000 copies, enough to rank at No. 699 among the best-selling albums of the year. By 2008, ‘Hits’ sold 82,000—a 29% drop—but ranked at No. 703.
• In the digital world, which relies less on merchandising programs, ‘Hits’ is all but absent: It hasn’t cracked the list of the top 10,000 digital albums since 2006. Bargain catalog makes an appealing impulse buy at physical stores, and since many retailers can’t carry all of Collins’ albums, they focused on a hits collection. In the digital world, consumers have many more options for Collins’ catalog. In addition to ‘Hits,’ shoppers can choose from his studio albums like ‘No Jacket Required’ (No. 3,273) and ‘But Seriously’ (No. 9,652) or buy their favorite tracks individually.